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Statistical confidence and certainty is a tricky thing. Even at its most confident and certain, statistical analysis requires assumptions. Sometimes they're small, sometimes they're big. But they're always there, and they're always important. Properly expressing these latent assumptions is simultaneously the most important and most ignored step in communicating statistical analysis. Given an interesting data set, just about any analyst can produce quirky analysis that changes the game -- the talent comes in making sure readers understand your inherent assumptions. When you dont, things can quickly spiral awry. Enter the hot-hand theory, and a crack team of Harvard researchers. Beckley Mason has already admirably, and the main takeaway is some heady stuff: The hot hand might really exist. The original research regarding the hot-hand theory was well-researched and statistically sound, but the findings were predicated on a tiny, footnote-esque assumption in the introduction of the original paper. Its an assumption thats a bit more troublesome than it seems at first glance. "Each player has an ensemble of shots that vary in difficulty [depending, for example, on the distance from the basket and on defensive pressure], and each shot is randomly selected from this ensemble." -- Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky, 1985 As it turns out, this assumption of random selection isnt quite true. If you think hard on all the times youve watched a player "get hot," you might realize the inherent flaw here. Think back -- how many times have you watched make two open 3s before trying a double-teamed 26-footer? How many times have you watched make two midrange jumpers before an unnecessary isolation at the top of the key with two men draped on him? These arent the exceptions -- theyre the rule. The researchers sifted through SportVU tracking data from the 2013 season, creating a model for shot difficulty they could use to measure how players react to "hot streaks." The answer is elegant (though perhaps unsurprising): When players heat up, as a rule, they take much worse shots. Without the information of shot difficulty, the data lends itself to a clear conclusion. "Players shoot as well or worse after hot streaks than they did before." But that data only makes sense without the context of shot difficulty -- when you add measures of difficulty to the equation, the answer changes. Think of it this way: Players shoot a negligible percentage from the field on full-court shots, no matter how open they are. But what if every single NBA player took a full-court shot after he got hot? Furthermore, what if these "hot" players made 20 percent on heated-up, well-guarded, full-court shots? That would be a massive improvement over the average, even though 20 percent is a terrible shooting percentage overall. But it would still be less than their overall shooting percentage, which means that traditional hot-hand studies would average that out as a proof that the hot hand doesnt exist. "They dont shoot any better after they heat up. Ergo, the hot hand doesnt exist." But it would, in that situation! It would just be obfuscated if you didnt have the shot-difficulty data to check against. The Harvard study isnt quite that stark players take significantly more difficult shots when they get hot, and they shoot a tiny bit better than theyd be expected to on those more difficult shots. It doesnt necessarily prove that the hot hand ex
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